Una mirada crítica del actual debate sobre estancamiento secular
Resumen
La escena actual de exiguo y frágil crecimiento de las economías centrales provocó la reaparición de la hipótesis de estancamiento secular. Un segmento de las explicaciones actuales atribuye esta paralización del nivel de acumulación a la gestación de un exceso de ahorro agregado, pero rehúsa detenerse en la función cumplida por las ganancias retenidas en el seno de las empresas. En este trabajo se ofrece una estimación a nivel rama de actividad de ese exceso de ahorro empresario, para 15 países de la OCDE, y se documenta su tendencia ascendente desde 1980. Asimismo, se discuten indicios que permiten postular que ciertas transformaciones de largo plazo experimentadas por la acumulación de capital a nivel mundial (caída de costos laborales, intensificación del comercio y la inversión internacionales, agudización de la competencia, sobrecapacidad, etc) contribuyeron al estancamiento.
Abstract
The current stage of meager and fragile growth in the central economies provoked the reappearance of the hypothesis of secular stagnation. A group of theoretical explanations attributes the stagnation to the development of aggregate excess savings, but refuse to dwell on the role played by retained earnings within companies. This paper offers an estimate of the excess savings at the industry level for 15 OECD countries, and documents its upward trend since 1980. In addition, it discusses further evidence that allows to put forward that certain long-term transformations experienced by the accumulation of capital worldwide (falling labor costs, increased international trade and investment, intensification of competition, overcapacity, etc) contributed to stagnation.
Resumo
O cenário atual de crescimento magro e frágil nas economias centrais causou o reaparecimento da hipótese de estagnação secular. Um segmento de explicações correntes atribuiu essa paralisia do nível de acumulação para a gestação de excesso de poupança agregada, mas recusa-se a estudar o papel desempenhado pelos lucros acumulados das empresas. Fizemos uma estimativa do excesso do poupança empresário, para diferentes indústrias em 15 países da OCDE, e observa-se tendência de aumento desde 1980.
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